Swit vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Swit and 1.40 for Polonia Lidzbark Warm., a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Swit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Swit to Win

46.8% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Swit win47%

Draw23%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.2%
1–07.4%
1–27.2%
2–06.6%

Why the model likes this

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Swit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Swit and 1.40 for Polonia Lidzbark Warm., a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Swit

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Elbląg · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Elbląg · 0-2 (L)
2025-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Unia Skierniewice	34	23	5	6	51	74
2	Legia Warszawa II	34	21	7	6	36	70
3	Łomża	34	18	10	6	30	64
4	Warta Sieradz	34	16	7	11	4	55
5	Wigry Suwałki	34	13	9	12	8	48
6	Jagiellonia II	34	13	8	13	5	47
7	Swit	34	13	8	13	-11	47
8	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	34	13	7	14	-7	46
9	Broń Radom	34	12	10	12	-8	46
10	Bełchatów	34	12	10	12	0	46
11	Mławianka Mława	34	12	8	14	5	44
12	Wisła Płock II	34	11	10	13	-4	43
13	Wikielec	34	10	12	12	-6	42
14	Stomil Olsztyn	34	11	9	14	-12	42
15	Victoria Sulejówek	34	11	8	15	-7	41
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	34	9	14	11	-14	41
17	Pelikan Łowicz	34	9	6	19	-24	33
18	Sokół Aleksandrów	34	2	6	26	-46	12

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.