· Analysis updated 23:43 UTC
TEC vs DVS 33 Ermelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for TEC and 1.41 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives TEC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
TEC or Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.6%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.4%
Why the model likes this
TEC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
DVS 33 Ermelo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TEC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for TEC and 1.41 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
TEC
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ACV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs NEO · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NEO · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Heino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heino · 0-0 (D)
DVS 33 Ermelo
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Genemuiden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rijnvogels · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Huizen · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Purmersteijn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Hoogeveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Harkemase Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ACV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sparta Nijkerk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Sportlust '46 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Dovo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Staphorst | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Hercules | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | SVZW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Hollandia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | TEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | VV Scherpenzeel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Eemdijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Dongen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Noordwijk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Vvsb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Gemert | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Rijnvogels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Excelsior Maassluis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | UDI '19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Roosendaal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | EVV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Groene Ster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | UNA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | GOES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | TOGB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Poortugaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Blauw Geel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.