Thorsvollur · Referee A. K. Twana · Analysis updated 02:53 UTC
Thor Akureyri vs Vikingur Reykjavik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Thor Akureyri and 3.25 for Vikingur Reykjavik, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Vikingur Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws roughly 15% of the time.
Model pick
Vikingur Reykjavik to Win
84.9% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
15%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.5%
- 0–29.7%
- 0–48.6%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–27.2%
Why the model likes this
Vikingur Reykjavik away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vikingur Reykjavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 5% / 10% / 85% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Thor Akureyri and 3.25 for Vikingur Reykjavik, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 50%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Thor Akureyri
Vikingur Reykjavik
- 2026-08-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IA Akranes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 45 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 39 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 37 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 29 |
| 5 | Keflavik | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 25 |
| 6 | Valur Reykjavik | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 21 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | FH hafnarfjordur | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -10 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -12 | 15 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -28 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.