Tromso vs Aalesund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.91 expected goals for Tromso and 1.01 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives Tromso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws roughly 24% of the time.

Model pick

Tromso to Win

76.1% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.91 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Tromso win76%

Draw14%

Aalesund win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–18.5%
2–08.4%
3–18.2%
3–08.2%
4–16.0%

Why the model likes this

Tromso home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tromso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.91 goals for Tromso and 1.01 for Aalesund, a combined 3.91 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Tromso

2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund · 6-2 (W)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové · 0-1 (L)

Aalesund

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	31	41
2	Viking	17	13	1	3	23	40
3	Tromso	16	10	4	2	15	34
4	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	2	26
5	Molde	16	7	3	6	5	24
6	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	3	24
7	Brann	16	7	1	8	6	22
8	Sarpsborg 08 FF	16	6	4	6	-2	22
9	Ham-Kam	16	6	4	6	-3	22
10	Valerenga	16	6	2	8	-6	20
11	Fredrikstad	16	6	2	8	-10	20
12	KFUM Oslo	17	5	4	8	-8	19
13	Sandefjord	16	4	3	9	-9	15
14	Kristiansund BK	16	4	3	9	-11	15
15	Aalesund	16	2	8	6	-14	14
16	Start	17	2	4	11	-22	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.