Broadhurst Park · Analysis updated 23:57 UTC
United of Manchester vs Stockton Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for United of Manchester and 1.10 for Stockton Town, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Stockton Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
Stockton Town or Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–013.0%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–27.9%
Why the model likes this
Stockton Town away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stockton Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 31% / 30% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for United of Manchester and 1.10 for Stockton Town, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
United of Manchester
Stockton Town
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leek Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ashton United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilkeston Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hednesford Town · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Avro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Ashton United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Whitby Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Ilkeston Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley AFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | AFC Emley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Rylands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Workington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 21 | Quorn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.