· Referee P. Gudmundsson · Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
Valur Reykjavik vs Keflavik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Valur Reykjavik and 1.56 for Keflavik, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Valur Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
Valur Reykjavik to Win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Why the model likes this
Keflavik away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valur Reykjavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Valur Reykjavik and 1.56 for Keflavik, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Thor Akureyri · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjarnan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs KA Akureyri · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-20T19:15:00.000Z · H vs IA Akranes · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 45 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 39 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 37 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 29 |
| 5 | Keflavik | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 25 |
| 6 | Valur Reykjavik | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 21 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | FH hafnarfjordur | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -10 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -12 | 15 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -28 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.