Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.80 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Flamengo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.

Model pick

Flamengo to Win

57.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.93 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Vasco DA Gama win19%

Draw23%

Flamengo win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

0–111.8%
1–110.9%
0–210.6%
1–29.8%
0–06.6%

Why the model likes this

Vasco DA Gama home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Flamengo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flamengo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 19% / 23% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.80 for Flamengo, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Vasco DA Gama

2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 1-0 (W)

Flamengo

2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.