Portugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 416:15

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Sunday, 17 May 2026

· Analysis updated 02:22 UTC

Vianense vs Leça Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Vianense and 1.18 for Leça, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Vianense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Vianense or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Vianense win44%

Draw26%

Leça win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Vianense home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leça away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vianense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Vianense and 1.18 for Leça, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Vianense

2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fafe · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-29T09:30:00.000Z · A vs AVS · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rebordosa · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bragança · 0-1 (L)

Leça

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-4 (L)
2026-06-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-17T16:15:00.000Z · Vianense 3-4 Leça (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round)
2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · Vianense 2-4 Leça (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.