Vitoria vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.22 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Gremio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.

Model pick

Gremio or Draw

64.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Vitoria win35%

Draw28%

Gremio win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–111.1%
1–010.7%
0–09.1%
1–28.0%

Why the model likes this

Vitoria home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gremio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 35% / 28% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Vitoria and 1.22 for Gremio, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Vitoria

2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-4 (L)
2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 0-2 (L)

Gremio

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.