Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground · Analysis updated 03:17 UTC
Warriors vs Kowloon City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Warriors and 1.18 for Kowloon City, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Warriors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Warriors or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Kowloon City away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Warriors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Warriors and 1.18 for Kowloon City, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Warriors
Kowloon City
- 2026-05-16T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs BC Rangers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Southern District · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern District · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Southern District · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T10:00:00.000Z · Warriors 0-0 Kowloon City (Premier League)
- 2026-02-01T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 4-1 Kowloon City (Premier League)
- 2025-12-20T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 3-0 Kowloon City (FA Cup)
- 2025-05-11T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 2-1 Kowloon City (Premier League)
- 2025-02-08T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 3-2 Kowloon City (Premier League)
- 2024-12-15T07:00:00.000Z · Warriors 4-1 Kowloon City (Sapling Cup)
- 2024-11-09T10:00:00.000Z · Warriors 3-1 Kowloon City (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Eastern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Eastern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Southern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | BC Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Shatin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.