FC Alverca Sports Complex · Analysis updated 05:49 UTC
Alverca vs Rio Ave Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Alverca and 1.01 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Alverca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
Alverca to Win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–012.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alverca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Alverca and 1.01 for Rio Ave, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Alverca to Win is the headline pick at 47% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Alverca
Rio Ave
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T17:00:00.000Z · Alverca 2-1 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-11-08T15:30:00.000Z · Alverca 1-1 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-11-23T14:00:00.000Z · Alverca 2-2 Rio Ave (Taça de Portugal)
- 2019-11-24T15:30:00.000Z · Alverca 0-1 Rio Ave (Taça de Portugal)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.