Football Value Bets — Sunday, 16 August 2026
Every selection below is a market where the model's probability is at least 3 points higher than the bookmaker's price once the margin is removed. It is a measure of disagreement, not a guarantee.
Scanned 19 upcoming fixtures, 19 of them with live bookmaker prices.
Value selections
30
Biggest edge
+14.8 pts · Away
Model vs market
- Edge +14.8
Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer · 22:00
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 4.80
- Market %
- 19.5%
- Model %
- 34.3%
- Model fair odds
- 2.92
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +12.5
New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer · 22:00
- Market
- BTTS · Yes
- Odds
- 1.55
- Market %
- 59.7%
- Model %
- 72.2%
- Model fair odds
- 1.39
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +12.4
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos
Serie A · 19:00
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 3.85
- Market %
- 24.2%
- Model %
- 36.6%
- Model fair odds
- 2.73
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +12.1
Sarmiento Junin vs Huracan
Liga Profesional Argentina · 18:00
- Market
- Goals · Over 2.5
- Odds
- 3.10
- Market %
- 30.3%
- Model %
- 42.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.36
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +10.8
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos
Serie A · 19:00
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 1.80
- Market %
- 51.5%
- Model %
- 62.3%
- Model fair odds
- 1.61
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +10.7
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina · 17:45
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 1.42
- Market %
- 65.7%
- Model %
- 76.4%
- Model fair odds
- 1.31
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +9.8
Vitoria vs Botafogo
Serie A · 21:30
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 1.60
- Market %
- 58.2%
- Model %
- 68.0%
- Model fair odds
- 1.47
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +9.7
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina · 17:45
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 2.80
- Market %
- 33.4%
- Model %
- 43.1%
- Model fair odds
- 2.32
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +9.6
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia
Serie A · 14:00
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 2.08
- Market %
- 44.8%
- Model %
- 54.4%
- Model fair odds
- 1.84
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +9.3
Vitoria vs Botafogo
Serie A · 21:30
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 3.10
- Market %
- 30.1%
- Model %
- 39.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.54
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +9.2
River Plate vs Argentinos JRS
Liga Profesional Argentina · 21:00
- Market
- Goals · Over 2.5
- Odds
- 2.65
- Market %
- 35.8%
- Model %
- 45.0%
- Model fair odds
- 2.22
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +8.9
Austin vs FC Dallas
Major League Soccer · 00:30
- Market
- Goals · Under 2.5
- Odds
- 2.20
- Market %
- 42.9%
- Model %
- 51.8%
- Model fair odds
- 1.93
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +8.8
Sarmiento Junin vs Huracan
Liga Profesional Argentina · 18:00
- Market
- BTTS · Yes
- Odds
- 2.38
- Market %
- 39.1%
- Model %
- 47.9%
- Model fair odds
- 2.09
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +8.6
Atletico-MG vs Gremio
Serie A · 19:00
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 4.55
- Market %
- 20.5%
- Model %
- 29.1%
- Model fair odds
- 3.44
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +8.6
Atletico-MG vs Gremio
Serie A · 19:00
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 2.00
- Market %
- 46.1%
- Model %
- 54.7%
- Model fair odds
- 1.83
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +8.5
Austin vs FC Dallas
Major League Soccer · 00:30
- Market
- Goals · Under 3.5
- Odds
- 1.45
- Market %
- 65.1%
- Model %
- 73.6%
- Model fair odds
- 1.36
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +8.3
River Plate vs Argentinos JRS
Liga Profesional Argentina · 21:00
- Market
- BTTS · Yes
- Odds
- 2.25
- Market %
- 41.1%
- Model %
- 49.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.02
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +7.6
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia
Serie A · 14:00
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 1.30
- Market %
- 71.3%
- Model %
- 78.9%
- Model fair odds
- 1.27
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +7.0
Nacional vs Estoril
Primeira Liga · 14:30
- Market
- Goals · Over 2.5
- Odds
- 1.85
- Market %
- 50.7%
- Model %
- 57.7%
- Model fair odds
- 1.73
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +6.8
Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer · 22:00
- Market
- Goals · Under 3.5
- Odds
- 2.00
- Market %
- 47.4%
- Model %
- 54.2%
- Model fair odds
- 1.85
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +6.5
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Instituto Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina · 23:15
- Market
- BTTS · No
- Odds
- 1.62
- Market %
- 57.0%
- Model %
- 63.5%
- Model fair odds
- 1.57
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +6.2
Internacional vs Remo
Serie A · 23:00
- Market
- Goals · Under 3.5
- Odds
- 1.38
- Market %
- 68.5%
- Model %
- 74.7%
- Model fair odds
- 1.34
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +5.9
Nacional vs Estoril
Primeira Liga · 14:30
- Market
- Goals · Over 3.5
- Odds
- 3.20
- Market %
- 29.4%
- Model %
- 35.3%
- Model fair odds
- 2.83
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +5.9
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Instituto Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina · 23:15
- Market
- Goals · Under 2.5
- Odds
- 1.45
- Market %
- 65.1%
- Model %
- 71.0%
- Model fair odds
- 1.41
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +5.7
Barracas Central vs Rosario Central
Liga Profesional Argentina · 23:15
- Market
- BTTS · No
- Odds
- 1.60
- Market %
- 57.9%
- Model %
- 63.6%
- Model fair odds
- 1.57
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +5.6
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
Serie A · 22:30
- Market
- Match Result · Home
- Odds
- 2.24
- Market %
- 41.6%
- Model %
- 47.2%
- Model fair odds
- 2.12
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +5.3
Barracas Central vs Rosario Central
Liga Profesional Argentina · 23:15
- Market
- Goals · Under 2.5
- Odds
- 1.42
- Market %
- 66.4%
- Model %
- 71.7%
- Model fair odds
- 1.39
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +5.3
Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia
Liga Profesional Argentina · 22:15
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 4.75
- Market %
- 19.7%
- Model %
- 25.0%
- Model fair odds
- 4.00
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +4.9
Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia
Liga Profesional Argentina · 22:15
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 1.95
- Market %
- 47.9%
- Model %
- 52.8%
- Model fair odds
- 1.89
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction → - Edge +4.7
Internacional vs Remo
Serie A · 23:00
- Market
- Goals · Under 2.5
- Odds
- 1.95
- Market %
- 48.4%
- Model %
- 53.1%
- Model fair odds
- 1.88
Bookmaker: 10Bet
Full match prediction →
How the edge is calculated
Raw decimal odds overstate the true chance because they include the bookmaker's margin. We remove that margin across each complete market group, so 1X2, both teams to score, over/under and double chance are all compared like for like.
The edge is the model probability minus the de-margined market probability, in percentage points. Anything under 3 points is treated as noise and is not listed.
Statistical estimates only, for 18+ audiences. A positive edge is our model's opinion against the market, not a prediction of profit. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.