Football Value Bets — Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Every selection below is a market where the model's probability is at least 3 points higher than the bookmaker's price once the margin is removed. It is a measure of disagreement, not a guarantee.
Scanned 28 upcoming fixtures, 15 of them with live bookmaker prices.
Value selections
23
Biggest edge
+14.5 pts · Away
Model vs market
- Edge +14.5
Birmingham vs Preston
Championship · 19:00
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 5.80
- Market %
- 15.7%
- Model %
- 30.2%
- Model fair odds
- 3.31
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +14.0
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League · 19:00
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 2.15
- Market %
- 44.0%
- Model %
- 58.0%
- Model fair odds
- 1.72
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +13.1
Wolves vs Bolton
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 2.90
- Market %
- 32.8%
- Model %
- 45.9%
- Model fair odds
- 2.18
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +12.5
Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League · 19:00
- Market
- BTTS · Yes
- Odds
- 1.36
- Market %
- 68.8%
- Model %
- 81.3%
- Model fair odds
- 1.23
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +12.4
Bristol City vs Blackburn
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 3.30
- Market %
- 28.0%
- Model %
- 40.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.48
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +12.2
Wolves vs Bolton
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- BTTS · Yes
- Odds
- 1.75
- Market %
- 53.3%
- Model %
- 65.5%
- Model fair odds
- 1.53
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +12.1
Millwall vs Swansea
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- BTTS · Yes
- Odds
- 1.75
- Market %
- 52.7%
- Model %
- 64.8%
- Model fair odds
- 1.54
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +11.4
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League · 19:00
- Market
- BTTS · Yes
- Odds
- 1.67
- Market %
- 56.8%
- Model %
- 68.2%
- Model fair odds
- 1.47
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +10.6
Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League · 19:00
- Market
- Match Result · Home
- Odds
- 3.00
- Market %
- 30.7%
- Model %
- 41.3%
- Model fair odds
- 2.42
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +10.5
Wrexham vs West Brom
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 1.62
- Market %
- 58.5%
- Model %
- 69.0%
- Model fair odds
- 1.45
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +10.2
Bristol City vs Blackburn
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 1.67
- Market %
- 56.5%
- Model %
- 66.7%
- Model fair odds
- 1.50
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +9.2
Wrexham vs West Brom
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 3.00
- Market %
- 30.6%
- Model %
- 39.8%
- Model fair odds
- 2.51
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +7.9
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer · 23:30
- Market
- BTTS · Yes
- Odds
- 1.33
- Market %
- 70.0%
- Model %
- 77.9%
- Model fair odds
- 1.28
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +7.3
Cardiff vs Watford
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 2.25
- Market %
- 42.1%
- Model %
- 49.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.02
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +7.3
Feyenoord vs Como
UEFA Champions League · 16:45
- Market
- BTTS · No
- Odds
- 2.88
- Market %
- 32.7%
- Model %
- 40.0%
- Model fair odds
- 2.50
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +6.8
Millwall vs Swansea
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Double Chance · Home/Away
- Odds
- 1.35
- Market %
- 70.1%
- Model %
- 76.9%
- Model fair odds
- 1.30
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +6.1
Birmingham vs Preston
Championship · 19:00
- Market
- BTTS · Yes
- Odds
- 1.75
- Market %
- 52.7%
- Model %
- 58.8%
- Model fair odds
- 1.70
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +5.6
Burnley vs Charlton
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Match Result · Away
- Odds
- 5.00
- Market %
- 18.4%
- Model %
- 24.0%
- Model fair odds
- 4.17
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +5.4
Inter vs Club Brugge KV
UEFA Champions League · 19:00
- Market
- Match Result · Draw
- Odds
- 6.00
- Market %
- 15.3%
- Model %
- 20.7%
- Model fair odds
- 4.83
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +5.1
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer · 23:30
- Market
- Double Chance · Home/Away
- Odds
- 1.25
- Market %
- 75.1%
- Model %
- 80.2%
- Model fair odds
- 1.25
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +4.4
Lask Linz vs Liverpool
UEFA Champions League · 16:45
- Market
- Match Result · Draw
- Odds
- 5.80
- Market %
- 16.2%
- Model %
- 20.6%
- Model fair odds
- 4.85
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +4.1
Burnley vs Charlton
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Double Chance · Draw/Away
- Odds
- 2.15
- Market %
- 43.9%
- Model %
- 48.0%
- Model fair odds
- 2.08
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction → - Edge +3.5
Cardiff vs Watford
Championship · 18:45
- Market
- Match Result · Draw
- Odds
- 4.00
- Market %
- 22.9%
- Model %
- 26.4%
- Model fair odds
- 3.79
Bookmaker: William Hill
Full match prediction →
How the edge is calculated
Raw decimal odds overstate the true chance because they include the bookmaker's margin. We remove that margin across each complete market group, so 1X2, both teams to score, over/under and double chance are all compared like for like.
The edge is the model probability minus the de-margined market probability, in percentage points. Anything under 3 points is treated as noise and is not listed.
Statistical estimates only, for 18+ audiences. A positive edge is our model's opinion against the market, not a prediction of profit. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.