Barendrecht vs Hoek Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Barendrecht and 2.38 for Hoek, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Hoek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

Hoek to Win

60.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.32 – 2.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Barendrecht win20%

Draw19%

Hoek win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–29.2%
1–17.8%
1–37.3%
0–27.0%
2–26.1%

Why the model likes this

Barendrecht home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hoek away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hoek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 20% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Barendrecht and 2.38 for Hoek, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Barendrecht

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 2-5 (L)
2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 4-2 (W)
2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-4 (L)

Hoek

2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Koninklijke HFC · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnsburgse Boys · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Barendrecht · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Quick Boys	34	19	10	5	34	66
2	De Treffers	34	18	9	7	27	63
3	Hoek	34	19	6	9	23	63
4	Rijnsburgse Boys	34	16	8	10	21	56
5	HHC	34	17	5	12	14	56
6	Spakenburg	34	16	8	10	12	56
7	Katwijk	34	15	7	12	5	52
8	Almere City II	34	15	5	14	8	50
9	Kozakken Boys	34	13	8	13	-8	47
10	Sparta Rotterdam II	34	12	9	13	-2	45
11	AFC Amsterdam	34	12	9	13	-8	45
12	Barendrecht	34	13	4	17	-22	43
13	RKAV Volendam	34	13	3	18	-12	42
14	GVVV Veenendaal	34	12	6	16	-15	42
15	Koninklijke HFC	34	12	3	19	-16	39
16	Ijsselmeervogels	34	9	4	21	-19	31
17	Excelsior Maassluis	34	8	7	19	-19	31
18	ACV	34	7	9	18	-23	30

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.