England · Non League Premier - Isthmian · Regular Season - 914:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 19 September 2026

· Analysis updated 23:46 UTC

Chatham Town vs Welling United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Chatham Town and 1.75 for Welling United, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Chatham Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Chatham Town or Draw

65.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Chatham Town win44%
Draw22%
Welling United win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals51%
Both teams to score71%

Correct score

  • 1–18.4%
  • 2–18.2%
  • 1–27.3%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 3–15.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Welling United away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Chatham Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.96 goals for Chatham Town and 1.75 for Welling United, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Chatham Town

    Welling United

    • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stanway Rovers · 4-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 1-4 (L)
    • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Folkestone Invicta · 0-2 (L)
    • 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 3-2 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Isthmian table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Carshalton Athletic330059
    2Dartford330039
    3Leatherhead321047
    4Eastbourne Borough321027
    5Dulwich Hamlet320166
    6Enfield Town320146
    7Welling United320136
    8Chatham Town320126
    9St Albans City320116
    10Burgess Hill Town311114
    11Aveley311104
    12Lewes3111-24
    13Ramsgate310203
    14Brentwood Town310203
    15Maldon & Tiptree3102-63
    16Cray Wanderers3021-12
    17Wingate & Finchley3021-22
    18Cheshunt3021-22
    19Whitehawk3012-31
    20Whyteleafe3012-51
    21Stanway Rovers3012-61
    22Three Bridges3003-40

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.