· Analysis updated 02:45 UTC
Chatham Town vs Welling United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Chatham Town and 1.75 for Welling United, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Chatham Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.
Model pick
Chatham Town or Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.4%
Why the model likes this
Chatham Town home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Welling United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chatham Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Chatham Town and 1.75 for Welling United, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Chatham Town
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Three Bridges · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dulwich Hamlet · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs St Albans City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maidstone Utd · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Margate · 1-2 (L)
Welling United
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stanway Rovers · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Folkestone Invicta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carshalton Athletic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Dartford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Leatherhead | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Eastbourne Borough | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Dulwich Hamlet | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Enfield Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Welling United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Chatham Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | St Albans City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Burgess Hill Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Aveley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Lewes | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Ramsgate | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Brentwood Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Maldon & Tiptree | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Cray Wanderers | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Wingate & Finchley | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Cheshunt | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 19 | Whitehawk | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Whyteleafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 22 | Three Bridges | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.