Cruzeiro vs Bahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.00 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Cruzeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Cruzeiro or Draw

69.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Cruzeiro win41%

Draw29%

Bahia win31%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.3%
1–113.3%
0–011.1%
0–111.1%
2–08.0%

Why the model likes this

Bahia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruzeiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 29% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.00 for Bahia, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Cruzeiro

Bahia

2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-21T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-17T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.