Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia M. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 1.00 for Gimnasia M., a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives Gimnasia M. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws roughly 65% of the time.

Model pick

Gimnasia M. or Draw

66.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.97 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Defensa Y Justicia win34%

Draw31%

Gimnasia M. win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–113.9%
0–013.9%
1–113.5%
1–013.5%
0–27.0%

Why the model likes this

Defensa Y Justicia home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia M. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia M. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 34% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 1.00 for Gimnasia M., a combined 1.97 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Defensa Y Justicia

2026-08-09T20:45:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-24T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-16T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 1-4 (L)

Gimnasia M.

2026-08-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-24T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
2	Instituto Cordoba	4	3	0	1	2	9
3	Newells Old Boys	5	2	1	2	1	7
4	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
5	Estudiantes L.P.	5	2	0	3	2	6
6	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
7	Deportivo Riestra	5	2	0	3	1	6
8	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
9	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
10	Central Cordoba de Santiago	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Boca Juniors	5	1	3	1	-2	6
12	San Lorenzo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Platense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Union Santa Fe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
1	Argentinos JRS	4	4	0	0	6	12
2	Belgrano Cordoba	5	3	1	1	4	10
3	Barracas Central	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Gimnasia L.P.	5	3	0	2	-1	9
5	Tigre	5	2	2	1	2	8
6	Huracan	4	2	1	1	2	7
7	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	1	7
8	Independ. Rivadavia	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Sarmiento Junin	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Aldosivi	5	0	2	3	-3	2
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	-4	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.