K-Park Training Academy · Analysis updated 23:45 UTC
East Kilbride vs Dumbarton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.25 expected goals for East Kilbride and 1.00 for Dumbarton, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives East Kilbride the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws roughly 20% of the time.
Model pick
East Kilbride to Win
80.5% probability
Expected goals
3.25 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 2–17.5%
- 4–06.6%
Why the model likes this
East Kilbride home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates East Kilbride to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.25 goals for East Kilbride and 1.00 for Dumbarton, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 60%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
East Kilbride
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cove Rangers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen of the South · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs ST Mirren · 3-4 (L)
Dumbarton
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.