East Kilbride vs Dumbarton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.25 expected goals for East Kilbride and 1.00 for Dumbarton, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives East Kilbride the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws roughly 20% of the time.

Model pick

East Kilbride to Win

80.5% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

3.25 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

East Kilbride win81%

Draw12%

Dumbarton win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

3–08.2%
3–18.2%
2–07.5%
2–17.5%
4–06.6%

Why the model likes this

East Kilbride home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates East Kilbride to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.25 goals for East Kilbride and 1.00 for Dumbarton, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

East Kilbride

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cove Rangers · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 5-3 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen of the South · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs ST Mirren · 3-4 (L)

Dumbarton

Head-to-head

2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · East Kilbride 5-3 Dumbarton (League Cup)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · East Kilbride 1-0 Dumbarton (League Two)
2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · East Kilbride 3-1 Dumbarton (League Two)
2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · East Kilbride 0-2 Dumbarton (League Two)
2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · East Kilbride 1-1 Dumbarton (League Two)
2024-07-13T14:00:00.000Z · East Kilbride 1-1 Dumbarton (League Cup)
2021-06-22T18:45:00.000Z · East Kilbride 2-1 Dumbarton (Friendlies Clubs)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.