Stockhorn Arena · Analysis updated 02:48 UTC
FC Thun vs Servette FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.94 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Servette FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Servette FC or Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Servette FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 37% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for FC Thun and 1.94 for Servette FC, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Servette FC or Draw is the headline pick at 63% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
FC Thun
Servette FC
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.