Stockhorn Arena · Analysis updated 01:51 UTC
FC Thun vs Servette FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.94 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Servette FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Servette FC or Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Servette FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 37% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for FC Thun and 1.94 for Servette FC, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Servette FC or Draw is the headline pick at 63% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
FC Thun
Servette FC
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | FC ST. Gallen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | FC Sion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.