Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Getafe and 0.79 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 1.67. That distribution gives Getafe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws roughly 65% of the time.

Model pick

Getafe or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.88 – 0.79

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Getafe win36%

Draw34%

Rayo Vallecano win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals50%

Over 2.5 goals24%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

0–018.8%
1–016.6%
0–114.8%
1–113.1%
2–07.3%

Why the model likes this

Getafe home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Vallecano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Getafe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 34% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Getafe and 0.79 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined 1.67 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Getafe

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 0-0 (D)

Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	59	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	42	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	26	72
4	Atletico Madrid	38	21	6	11	18	69
5	Real Betis	38	15	15	8	11	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	-6	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	-3	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	-9	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	-2	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	-12	46
12	Athletic Club	38	13	6	19	-15	45
13	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	-14	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	-12	43
15	Elche	38	10	13	15	-8	43
16	Levante	38	11	9	18	-14	42
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	-6	42
18	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	-10	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	-16	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	-34	29

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.