Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Getafe and 1.52 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Rayo Vallecano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Rayo Vallecano or Draw

63.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Getafe win37%

Draw24%

Rayo Vallecano win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–28.5%
2–18.3%
0–17.6%
1–07.4%

Why the model likes this

Getafe home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Vallecano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rayo Vallecano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Getafe and 1.52 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Getafe

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 0-0 (D)

Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.