Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 2.40 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Maccabi Tel Aviv to Win

57.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.52 – 2.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Hapoel Beer Sheva win24%

Draw19%

Maccabi Tel Aviv win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.7%
1–17.2%
1–36.9%
2–26.6%
0–25.7%

Why the model likes this

Hapoel Beer Sheva home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Maccabi Tel Aviv away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maccabi Tel Aviv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 24% / 19% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 2.40 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Hapoel Beer Sheva

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 1-2 (L)

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 5-0 (W)
2026-07-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.