Netherlands · Tweede Divisie · Regular Season - 3413:30

41

Saturday, 23 May 2026

Sportpark De Krom · Analysis updated 02:49 UTC

Katwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Katwijk and 1.83 for Sparta Rotterdam II, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Katwijk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Katwijk to Win

46.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.17 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Katwijk win47%
Draw20%
Sparta Rotterdam II win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Both teams to score74%

Correct score

  • 2–17.9%
  • 1–17.3%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 1–26.6%
  • 3–15.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Sparta Rotterdam II away threat

    Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Katwijk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 20% / 33% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.17 goals for Katwijk and 1.83 for Sparta Rotterdam II, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Katwijk

    Sparta Rotterdam II

    • 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 6-1 (W)
    • 2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Maassluis · 2-4 (L)
    • 2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 2-3 (L)
    • 2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spakenburg · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 1-1 (D)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Tweede Divisie table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Sparta Rotterdam II110053
    2Quick Boys110053
    3De Treffers110043
    4Almere City II110043
    5HHC110023
    6Hoek110023
    7Kloetinge110023
    8Ijsselmeervogels110013
    9Spakenburg110013
    10Kozakken Boys1001-10
    11Katwijk1001-10
    12AFC Amsterdam1001-20
    13Barendrecht1001-20
    14Koninklijke HFC1001-20
    15GVVV Veenendaal1001-40
    16Rijnsburgse Boys1001-40
    17ROHDA Raalte1001-50
    18RKAV Volendam1001-50

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.