Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.18 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Lechia Gdansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Lechia Gdansk or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lechia Gdansk win44%

Draw26%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Lechia Gdansk home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lechia Gdansk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.18 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Lechia Gdansk

2026-08-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 2-2 (D)

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wisla Krakow	34	20	11	3	40	71
2	Slask Wroclaw	34	17	11	6	22	62
3	Wieczysta Kraków	34	16	9	9	23	57
4	Chrobry Głogów	34	16	7	11	12	55
5	ŁKS Łódź	34	15	9	10	8	54
6	Polonia Warszawa	34	15	8	11	3	53
7	Ruch Chorzów	34	14	11	9	8	53
8	Miedz Legnica	34	15	7	12	-1	52
9	Puszcza Niepołomice	34	12	13	9	5	49
10	Polonia Bytom	34	13	8	13	6	47
11	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	34	11	12	11	-3	45
12	Odra Opole	34	11	11	12	-6	44
13	Stal Rzeszów	34	12	7	15	-11	43
14	Stal Mielec	34	10	6	18	-11	36
15	Pogoń Siedlce	34	9	9	16	-10	36
16	Znicz Pruszków	34	7	7	20	-28	28
17	Górnik Łęczna	34	5	12	17	-23	27
18	Tychy 71	34	5	8	21	-34	23

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.