Polsat Plus Arena · Referee A. Rozycki · Analysis updated 04:40 UTC
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.71 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.69 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to Win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
0.71 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.4%
- 0–213.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.1%
Why the model likes this
Lechia Gdansk home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 15% / 24% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.71 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.69 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Recent form
Lechia Gdansk
- 2026-08-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 2-2 (D)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Chrobry Głogów | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Polonia Warszawa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Arka Gdynia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Nieciecza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Odra Opole | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Stal Mielec | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Pogoń Siedlce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Miedz Legnica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Polonia Bytom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Podbeskidzie | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Ruch Chorzów | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Stal Rzeszów | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Lechia Gdansk | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.