Lens vs Nantes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Lens and 1.10 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Lens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Lens to Win

54.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lens win55%

Draw23%

Nantes win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.9%
1–09.7%
2–09.0%
3–16.1%

Why the model likes this

Lens home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nantes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Lens and 1.10 for Nantes, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Lens

2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Charleroi · 2-2 (D)

Nantes

2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Laval · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Wakrah · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs La Roche VF · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.