Lens vs Nantes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.31 expected goals for Lens and 0.67 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Lens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws roughly 26% of the time.

Model pick

Lens to Win

74.4% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.31 – 0.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lens win74%

Draw17%

Nantes win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

2–013.6%
1–011.8%
3–010.5%
2–19.1%
1–17.9%

Why the model likes this

Lens home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 17% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.31 goals for Lens and 0.67 for Nantes, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 44%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Recent form

Lens

2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Charleroi · 2-2 (D)

Nantes

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.