Machida GION Stadium · Referee H. Shimizu · Analysis updated 04:39 UTC
Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.13 for Tokyo Verdy, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
Machida Zelvia to Win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–08.1%
Why the model likes this
Machida Zelvia home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tokyo Verdy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Recent form
Machida Zelvia
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs JEF United Chiba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-2 (D)
Tokyo Verdy
- 2026-08-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kawasaki Frontale · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-30T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T10:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 0-0 Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)
- 2026-02-21T05:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 2-2 Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)
- 2025-07-20T09:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 1-0 Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)
- 2025-02-26T10:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 0-1 Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)
- 2024-07-14T09:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 1-0 Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)
- 2024-05-19T05:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 5-0 Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)
- 2023-07-09T09:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 2-2 Tokyo Verdy (J2 League)
- 2023-05-13T06:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 1-0 Tokyo Verdy (J2 League)
- 2022-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 2-2 Tokyo Verdy (J2 League)
- 2022-03-20T05:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 1-2 Tokyo Verdy (J2 League)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 45 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 37 |
| 4 | Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 28 |
| 5 | Tokyo Verdy | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 28 |
| 6 | Urawa | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | -3 | 20 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | Mito Hollyhock | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | -16 | 18 |
| 10 | JEF United Chiba | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Cerezo Osaka | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 31 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | Fagiano Okayama | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | -3 | 26 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-pulse | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | -2 | 24 |
| 8 | Kyoto Sanga | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 9 | V-varen Nagasaki | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -8 | 21 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -10 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.