Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.03 for Tokyo Verdy, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.

Model pick

Machida Zelvia to Win

53.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Machida Zelvia win53%

Draw24%

Tokyo Verdy win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–011.1%
2–19.7%
2–09.5%
0–16.6%

Why the model likes this

Machida Zelvia home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.03 for Tokyo Verdy, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Machida Zelvia

2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs JEF United Chiba · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-18T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-06T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-2 (D)

Tokyo Verdy

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima	18	15	3	20	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	14	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	6	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	-2	28
5	Tokyo Verdy	18	10	8	-4	28
6	Urawa	18	7	11	3	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	-3	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	-2	20
9	Mito Hollyhock	18	6	12	-16	18
10	JEF United Chiba	18	3	15	-16	12
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	4	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	9	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	2	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	8	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	6	28
6	Fagiano Okayama	18	8	10	-3	26
7	Shimizu S-pulse	18	8	10	-2	24
8	Kyoto Sanga	18	8	10	-6	23
9	V-varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	-8	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	-10	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.