Maritsa Milevo vs Spartak Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.00 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Maritsa Milevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

Maritsa Milevo to Win

60.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.02 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Maritsa Milevo win61%

Draw21%

Spartak Plovdiv win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

2–110.0%
2–09.9%
1–19.8%
1–09.8%
3–16.7%

Why the model likes this

Maritsa Milevo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritsa Milevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.00 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Maritsa Milevo

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Beroe · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 2-2 (D)

Spartak Plovdiv

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-6 (L)
2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nesebar	36	29	4	3	94	91
2	Maritsa Plovdiv	36	23	6	7	50	75
3	Neftochimic Burgas	36	19	9	8	14	66
4	Yambol 1915	36	20	6	10	31	66
5	Levski Karlovo	36	20	5	11	11	65
6	Maritsa Milevo	36	17	9	10	32	60
7	Spartak Plovdiv	36	15	9	12	6	54
8	Sozopol	36	16	6	14	12	54
9	Sayana Haskovo	36	15	7	14	4	52
10	Zagorets	36	13	10	13	-8	49
11	Rozova dolina	36	14	6	16	-7	48
12	Gigant Saedinenie	36	14	5	17	-3	47
13	Rodopa Smolyan	36	14	4	18	-19	46
14	Atletik Kuklen	36	13	3	20	-35	42
15	Sekirovo Rakovski	36	9	8	19	-23	35
16	Dimitrovgrad	36	10	5	21	-40	35
17	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	36	9	6	21	-9	33
18	Rakovski 2011	36	8	3	25	-48	27
19	Asenovets	36	6	5	25	-62	23

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.