· Analysis updated 02:57 UTC
Maritsa Milevo vs Spartak Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.36 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Maritsa Milevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Maritsa Milevo to Win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.8%
Why the model likes this
Maritsa Milevo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritsa Milevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.36 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Maritsa Milevo
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Beroe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 2-2 (D)
Spartak Plovdiv
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodopa Smolyan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sayana Haskovo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Atletik Kuklen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Botev Plovdiv II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Spartak Plovdiv | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Levski Krumovgrad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Maritsa Milevo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Rozova dolina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Yambol 1915 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Zagorets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Sozopol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Dimitrovgrad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Levski Karlovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Gigant Saedinenie | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Neftochimic Burgas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.