Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Monterey Bay and 1.18 for Sporting JAX, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Monterey Bay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Monterey Bay or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Monterey Bay win44%

Draw26%

Sporting JAX win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Monterey Bay home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting JAX away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monterey Bay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.18 for Sporting JAX, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Monterey Bay

2026-08-09T02:00:00.000Z · H vs New Mexico United · 2-5 (L)
2026-08-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs El Paso Locomotive · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Lexington · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-26T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Orange County SC · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-19T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Phoenix Rising · 2-3 (L)

Sporting JAX

2026-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacramento Republic · 0-5 (L)
2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs El Paso Locomotive · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Brooklyn · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.