Cardinale Stadium · Referee M. Thompson · Analysis updated 03:30 UTC
Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Monterey Bay and 1.39 for Sporting JAX, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Monterey Bay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.
Model pick
Monterey Bay to Win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
2.17 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
Why the model likes this
Monterey Bay home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting JAX away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monterey Bay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.39 for Sporting JAX, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Monterey Bay
- 2026-08-09T02:00:00.000Z · H vs New Mexico United · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs El Paso Locomotive · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Lexington · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-26T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Orange County SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-19T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Phoenix Rising · 2-3 (L)
Sporting JAX
- 2026-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacramento Republic · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs El Paso Locomotive · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Brooklyn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 41 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 28 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 |
| 8 | Hartford Athletic | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -9 | 22 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | -9 | 19 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -15 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | -29 | 8 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
| 2 | San Antonio | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 32 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 29 |
| 5 | Lexington | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 7 | Sacramento Republic | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 27 |
| 8 | Las Vegas Lights | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 26 |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 25 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -2 | 22 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -15 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.