Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Motherwell and 1.18 for Celtic, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Motherwell the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Motherwell or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Motherwell win44%

Draw26%

Celtic win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Motherwell home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celtic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Motherwell to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Motherwell and 1.18 for Celtic, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Motherwell

2026-08-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HB Torshavn · 3-0 (W)

Celtic

2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premiership table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heart Of Midlothian	33	21	7	5	30	70
2	Rangers	33	19	12	2	35	69
3	Celtic	33	21	4	8	24	67
4	Motherwell	33	14	12	7	23	54
5	Hibernian	33	13	12	8	14	51
6	Falkirk	33	13	7	13	-3	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	9	13	11	-9	40
8	Aberdeen	33	9	6	18	-15	33
9	Dundee	33	8	9	16	-19	33
10	ST Mirren	33	7	9	17	-21	30
11	Kilmarnock	33	6	10	17	-28	28
12	Livingston	33	1	13	19	-31	16
1	Celtic	38	26	4	8	32	82
2	Heart Of Midlothian	38	24	8	6	33	80
3	Rangers	38	20	12	6	33	72
4	Motherwell	38	16	13	9	23	61
5	Hibernian	38	15	12	11	14	57
6	Falkirk	38	14	7	17	-12	49
1	Dundee Utd	38	10	15	13	-11	45
2	Dundee	38	11	9	18	-19	42
3	Aberdeen	38	11	7	20	-15	40
4	Kilmarnock	38	10	10	18	-18	40
5	ST Mirren	38	8	10	20	-25	34
6	Livingston	38	2	15	21	-35	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.