Fir Park · Referee J. Beaton · Analysis updated 03:30 UTC
Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Motherwell and 1.40 for Celtic, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Celtic or Draw
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–07.5%
Why the model likes this
Motherwell home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celtic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Recent form
Motherwell
- 2026-08-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HB Torshavn · 3-0 (W)
Celtic
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T19:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-12-30T20:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-0 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 2-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-02-02T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2024-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 0-4 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 0-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2024-02-25T12:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-1 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2023-09-30T11:30:00.000Z · Motherwell 1-2 Celtic (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.