Mikkelin Urheilupuisto · Referee K. Nummela · Analysis updated 00:46 UTC
MP vs Klubi-04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for MP and 0.86 for Klubi-04, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives MP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
MP to Win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.1%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.4%
Why the model likes this
Klubi-04 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 29% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for MP and 0.86 for Klubi-04, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
MP
Klubi-04
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kooteepee · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T15:30:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-14T15:30:00.000Z · MP 2-2 Klubi-04 (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-04-24T16:00:00.000Z · MP 1-0 Klubi-04 (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · MP 1-2 Klubi-04 (Ykköscup)
- 2021-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · MP 0-2 Klubi-04 (Ykkönen)
- 2021-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · MP 2-0 Klubi-04 (Ykkönen)
- 2021-05-18T15:30:00.000Z · MP 1-3 Klubi-04 (Ykkönen)
- 2021-02-13T17:15:00.000Z · MP 0-3 Klubi-04 (Suomen Cup)
- 2019-08-11T15:30:00.000Z · MP 4-0 Klubi-04 (Kakkonen - Lohko A)
- 2019-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · MP 0-0 Klubi-04 (Kakkonen - Lohko A)
- 2017-08-16T15:30:00.000Z · MP 3-1 Klubi-04 (Kakkonen - Lohko A)
Ykkösliiga table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.