Poland · Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 816:00

16:00 UTC

Saturday, 12 September 2026

· Analysis updated 23:56 UTC

Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.18 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Radomiak Radom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Radomiak Radom or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Radomiak Radom win44%
Draw26%
Piast Gliwice win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams to score54%

Correct score

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Piast Gliwice away threat

    Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Radomiak Radom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.48 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.18 for Piast Gliwice, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Radomiak Radom

    Piast Gliwice

    • 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Wieczysta Kraków · 3-4 (L)
    • 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 0-3 (L)
    • 2026-08-01T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 4-3 (W)
    • 2026-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 0-2 (L)
    • 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 0-2 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Ekstraklasa table

    Full league page →

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.