Poland · Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 816:00

16:00 UTC

Saturday, 12 September 2026

· Analysis updated 03:46 UTC

Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 2.15 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 4.21. That distribution gives Piast Gliwice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Piast Gliwice or Draw

61.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.07 – 2.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Radomiak Radom win38%
Draw20%
Piast Gliwice win42%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals79%
Over 3.5 goals61%
Both teams to score77%

Correct score

  • 2–27.3%
  • 1–27.0%
  • 2–16.8%
  • 1–16.6%
  • 2–35.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Piast Gliwice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 38% / 20% / 42% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.07 goals for Radomiak Radom and 2.15 for Piast Gliwice, a combined 4.21 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 77%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

  • Model confidence

    Piast Gliwice or Draw is the headline pick at 62% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Radomiak Radom

    Piast Gliwice

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Ekstraklasa table

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      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.