West Ham vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for West Ham and 1.52 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Arsenal to Win

47.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

West Ham win27%

Draw26%

Arsenal win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–111.3%
1–29.3%
0–28.6%
1–08.0%

Why the model likes this

West Ham home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for West Ham and 1.52 for Arsenal, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

West Ham

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stevenage · 5-0 (W)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southend · 1-1 (D)

Arsenal

2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.