West Ham vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for West Ham and 1.52 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Arsenal to Win

47.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

West Ham win27%

Draw26%

Arsenal win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–111.3%
1–29.3%
0–28.6%
1–08.0%

Why the model likes this

West Ham home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for West Ham and 1.52 for Arsenal, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

West Ham

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stevenage · 5-0 (W)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southend · 1-1 (D)

Arsenal

2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.