· Analysis updated 09:37 UTC
A Madrid III vs CF Talavera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for A Madrid III and 0.65 for CF Talavera, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives A Madrid III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
A Madrid III win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
A Madrid III home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CF Talavera away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates A Madrid III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 24% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for A Madrid III and 0.65 for CF Talavera, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 2–013.6%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
A Madrid III
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Ávila · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 1-1 (D)
CF Talavera
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | A Madrid III | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Real Valladolid II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Numancia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | SS Reyes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | CF Talavera | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Navalcarnero | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Ávila | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Atlético Paso | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Albacete II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Real Madrid III | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Calvo Sotelo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is A Madrid III win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.