Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium · Analysis updated 16:04 UTC
Abha vs Al Kholood Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Abha and 1.63 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Al Kholood the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Abha home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Kholood to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 34% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Abha and 1.63 for Al Kholood, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Abha
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Diriyah · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Nassr · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fayha · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-25T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 1-1 (D)
Al Kholood
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | NEOM | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Kholood | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Al Diriyah | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Al-Hazm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.