· Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Acero vs Eldense B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Acero and 0.84 for Eldense B, a combined total of 1.76. That distribution gives Acero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Acero home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eldense B away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Acero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 33% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Acero and 0.84 for Eldense B, a combined 1.76 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.2%
- 1–015.8%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Acero
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jove Español · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Torrevieja · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Utiel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Crevillente · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-05-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Silla · 2-3 (L)
Eldense B
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hércules II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrent · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Buñol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atzeneta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrellano · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Vall de Uxó | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Torrent | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Roda | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Eldense B | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Levante II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Saguntino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Crevillente | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Acero | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Ontinyent 1931 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | SC Torrevieja | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Buñol | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Jove Español | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Atzeneta | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Soneja | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Utiel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Torrellano | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.