· Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Al Nasr vs Al Musannah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.64 for Al Musannah, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Al Nasr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Nasr win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Nasr home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Musannah away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 2–013.7%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–010.4%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Smail · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:20:00.000Z · A vs Fanja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Musannah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Dhofar · 2-1 (W)
Al Musannah
- 2026-10-01T14:25:00.000Z · H vs Ibri · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Saham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Shabab · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasr · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Oman Club · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T12:40:00.000Z · Al Nasr 2-0 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2023-03-02T13:30:00.000Z · Al Nasr 0-0 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2022-09-09T13:45:00.000Z · Al Nasr 0-0 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2022-04-08T18:15:00.000Z · Al Nasr 1-2 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2021-11-24T16:05:00.000Z · Al Nasr 0-1 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2015-04-04T13:40:00.000Z · Al Nasr 1-1 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2014-10-25T15:40:00.000Z · Al Nasr 2-2 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2014-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · Al Nasr 0-1 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2014-02-04T16:00:00.000Z · Al Nasr 0-0 Al Musannah (Professional League)
Professional League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Nasr win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.