Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.15 for Abha, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Al-Qadisiyah FC win

63.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.30 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Al-Qadisiyah FC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Abha away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.15 for Abha, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Al-Qadisiyah FC win63%

Draw19%

Abha win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–18.4%
2–08.4%
3–17.4%
1–07.3%

Recent form

Al-Qadisiyah FC

2026-10-16T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-12T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Pakhtakor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T13:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Kholood · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wasl FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T15:25:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ettifaq · 3-3 (D)

Abha

2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Diriyah · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Nassr · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fayha · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-25T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	10	8	1	1	15	25
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	9	8	0	1	20	24
3	Al-Nassr	9	7	1	1	13	22
4	Al-Ittihad FC	9	6	2	1	8	20
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	9	6	0	3	11	18
6	NEOM	10	5	1	4	5	16
7	Al Diriyah	10	4	3	3	0	15
8	Al-Ettifaq	10	4	3	3	-2	15
9	Al Kholood	9	3	3	3	-4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	10	2	6	2	-4	12
11	Al-Hazm	10	2	3	5	-4	9
12	Al Riyadh	9	2	3	4	-9	9
13	Al Shabab	9	1	5	3	-2	8
14	Al-Faisaly FC	9	1	4	4	-7	7
15	Al-Fayha	10	1	4	5	-7	7
16	Al-Fateh	10	1	3	6	-11	6
17	Al Taawon	10	0	4	6	-13	4
18	Abha	8	0	2	6	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Al-Qadisiyah FC win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.