Bahcesehir Okullari Stadium · Referee Davut Dakul Celik, Türkiye · Analysis updated 12:36 UTC
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.84 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Alanyaspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alanyaspor win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alanyaspor home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Erzurumspor FK away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alanyaspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Alanyaspor and 0.84 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–19.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 57.8% vs market 51.5%, edge +6.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 57.8% | 1.73 | +6.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.7% | 72.2% | 1.39 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.8% | 23.2% | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 49.2% | 49.0% | 2.04 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.0% | 27.8% | 3.60 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.1% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.2% | 51.0% | 1.96 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 42.2% | 2.37 | -6.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Alanyaspor
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Çorum FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Göztepe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 1-0 (W)
Erzurumspor FK
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Eyüpspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alanyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Samsunspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alanyaspor win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.