Estadio Mendizorrotza · Analysis updated 21:35 UTC
Alaves vs Malaga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Alaves and 0.63 for Malaga, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Alaves win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alaves home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malaga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–014.4%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–09.0%
Recent form
Alaves
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
Malaga
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-05-20T16:30:00.000Z · Alaves 2-1 Malaga (Segunda División)
- 2022-12-18T20:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Malaga (Segunda División)
- 2018-05-06T10:00:00.000Z · Alaves 3-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2017-12-21T20:30:00.000Z · Alaves 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2017-03-11T17:30:00.000Z · Alaves 2-1 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2016-10-16T10:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-1 Malaga (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alaves win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.