FC Alverca Sports Complex · Analysis updated 04:08 UTC
Alverca vs Moreirense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Alverca and 1.52 for Moreirense, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Moreirense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.
Model pick
Moreirense or Draw
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–07.3%
Why the model likes this
Moreirense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moreirense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Alverca and 1.52 for Moreirense, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Alverca
Moreirense
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-22T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs AVS · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.